Jon-Christopher Bua is a White House Commentator & US Political Analyst and Contributor to Talk Media News. JC‘s Analysis can be seen on Euronews and News2Share. He also contributes to The Huffington Post UK by way of his Analysis Blogs. In this piece, Bua explores the future of the 2016 presidential race.
Washington (Talk Media News) – So with the Big Apple primary now behind us and Hillary and The Donald having taken their bites, where do we stand in the race to become the Commander-in-Chief?
Well, one thing seems much more certain today with two blow out wins in the Empire State: It is more likely to be a contest between two New Yorkers going Mano a Mano.
Like a Subway World Series, Yankees v Dodgers, this will be a battle between two New York Sluggers who can brawl with the best of them and know how to permanently damage the competition.
With Ted Cruz all but mathematically eliminated from getting 1,237 delegates and Bernie Sanders facing a similar fate – unless of course the delegates switch their alliances at the conventions in Cleveland and Philly – it looks like this Home Run Derby between The Donald and HRC is well underway.
Barring any unforeseen events of course, at the moment, Cruz, Kasich and Sanders are now just interesting distractions to this Main Event.
This is now a real battle to the finish between two hardened New Yorkers and their first class teams of political operatives.
The Donald is a born and bred New Yorker from the Borough of Queens and Hillary, Chicago born, is a New Yorker by nature, temperament and choice.
Also amazing, is that this is the first time since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected in 1932 that the American people are actually considering electing a NEW YORKER as President of the United States.
Although in past there have been 4 other presidents from the State of New York – Martin Van Buren, Chester A. Arthur, Grover Cleveland 2x, and Theodore Roosevelt – there has not been a New Yorker in the Oval Office since FDR’s passing in 1945.
This group of New Yorkers includes both Democrats and Republicans and some of our most colorful presidents – TR and FDR to be sure.
Some wonder what makes a New Yorker so appealing as a possible president – tough times clearly require tough leadership. Part of that appeal is their “New York Style” – their rough, no nonsense approach, no patience for incompetence – they do not suffer fools quietly.
Although there are many remarkable things about this election cycle the one thing that stands out is the message the voters are sending which is loud and clear.
America has become a hopelessly divided country. While there are those who believe we are on the right path, others believe we have completely lost our way – they are about evenly split.
Both of our major political parties are also divided from within.
On the Republicans side, the excitement and enthusiasm is aligned with the die-hard Trump supporters and the GOP establishment is behind anyone other than Trump.
On the Democrat side, the establishment is behind Hillary but the youth, enthusiasm and excitement are all aligned with Brooklyn born New Yorker Bernie Sanders and his unorthodox message of “Revolution Now”. And his campaign has raised over 44 million dollars with contributions of 27 dollars at a time to prove it.
Despite the odds in Trump and Hillary’s favor no one is dropping out and Sanders, Cruz and Kasich continue to slog on pushing toward the last hope of a contested convention in both Cleveland and Philadelphia.
It now seems the presidential race between Trump and Hillary is officially underway for two of the most unpopular candidates in recent history. Hillary’s negatives outweigh her positives by 24 points – however the good news for Hillary is that Donald’s negatives outweigh his positives by 41 points!
So, as we head into the next set of primaries – Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware and Rhode Island, both the candidates and the political parties have some difficult choices ahead.
This set of primaries is almost tailor made for The Donald and HRC who currently both have significant leads in all five states.
If Trump pulls off another sweep on Tuesday the establishment Republicans will have to decide whether it is worth the risk of splitting the party in two to allow the challenge to Trump to continue.
For the GOP, losing Trump would mean losing all the enthusiasm and the new voters he has brought to the race. This is certainly something RNC Chair Reince Priebus needs to consider.
If the GOP drives Trump out they will almost assure a Democratic win and a broken party for years to come.
Hillary and the Democrats have an equally difficult choice. Bernie has built a movement around his message which is the force propelling so much of the excitement on the Democratic side.
So what happens if Bernie is pushed out?
Unlike the 2008 presidential race when Hillary supporters joined the Obama camp following her passionate appeal, this time the two Democratic competitors are so unaligned on policies and ideas that it makes Hillary and Barack look like two peas in the same political pod.
Interestingly, Bernie has more in common with Trump than with Hillary. They both want to upend and overhaul the system and they both think it no longer works for the average guy. They both have an isolationist view of world affairs and they both believe America needs to rebuild itself and turn its focus within.
Bernie and Trump also hate our existing trade deals and want to bring jobs back to America and their main difference is just how to go about it. Bernie wants to redistribute ‘The Pie’ and Donald wants to make ‘The Pie’ bigger so everyone gets a slice.
Since it is not clear how aligned Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders actually are with their respective parties, the party officials should worry about tossing either of them aside.
After all, those two New Yorkers joining forces and agreeing on a compromise plan to run the country, might just be an impossible Third Party ticket to beat.
This article originally appeared on Talk Media News and has been reprinted with permission from Jon-Christopher Bua